Finding quality data is crucial to being able to create a successful model. We have lots of historical Exchange data that we’re happy to share, and there are lots of other sources of sports or racing specific data available online, depending on what you’re looking for. Google Sheets Sports Betting Tracker. The sports betting tracker is also available on Google Sheets. While the features are the same as the Excel file, Google Sheets has some notable benefits: Available/online at all times; Can enter bets on your phone using the Sheets app; You don’t need to be at a computer to enter your bets. Introduction to Sports Gambling 1.1. Similarities and Differences Compared to Traditional Gambling Sports gambling is a form of betting similar to traditional probability games such as roulette, dice, or cards. The result of a sports bet is settled based on the outcome of a sporting event on which none of the betting parties has any.

Do you know why the house always wins eventually when it comes to casino games? With casino games, we are able to solve for the probability of any given outcome mathematically.

So, when you spin a roulette wheel, there’s a 1-in-38 chance of the ball landing on the number that you bet. The casino sets the odds so that correct picks pay out 36-to-1, and so the math works out in such a way that the house always has a significant advantage over the gamblers.

Fortunately for sports bettors, the probability of winning or losing a sporting event is less certain. Numerous factors influence the outcome, and without having definite expectations determined by the number of cards or dice, sportsbooks are forced to try and set the odds based on their own research.

Furthermore, when the bookmaker sets their line, they aren’t trying to accurately predict the probability of each outcome happening.

A sportsbook’s goal when they set the odds of a contest is to entice bettors to place an equal amount of wagers on each side, guaranteeing the book makes a profit.

So once they’ve crunched the numbers and predicted the probability of each outcome happening, they adjust the odds to bring in action on both sides. The odds that are set then carry a certain implied probability, which is the number we base our wagers on.

In order to become a successful sports bettor, you must do your own statistical analysis. The goal is to identify variables that have a strong influence on the outcome of a contest or event and calculate your individual probabilities for each possible result. The last step is to compare your percentages of likelihood against the implied expectations set by the bookmaker.

Winning sports gamblers only make a wager when a bet has positive value. A gamble is said to have value when the implied probability based on the odds is a lower percentage than the likelihood you calculated from your own analysis.

That’s the whole name of the game; if your math says that Team A will win this contest 45% of the time, but the odds mean Team A would only need to win 20% of the time to break even, that’s bet has value.

How To Build A Sports Betting Model In Excel

But how do we accurately determine the probability so that we have a number to compare against the odds? We have to create betting systems based on statistical analysis and probability distributions. This guide is meant to help you understand how handicapping is done and get you started.